debunking skepticism

topic posted Tue, April 22, 2008 - 4:55 PM by  atom
*ahem*

you can't prove or disprove synchronicity, it's a very grey topic of discussion and a purely subjective experience. i happen to believe ALL of what we experience as reality is subjective (and quantum physics is beginning to support this, the observer affects ALL outcomes simply by his presence...) but it's way too big a can 'o' worms to get into here.

what's really been irritating me lately is the whole stance of "what i believe is real, and what you believe is bullshit, even though other people think what i believe is bullshit, i'm going to refuse to see how it could possibly apply to me...because i know i'm right, you're wrong, and here's some links to the all knowing internet site that hapens to support my position at the moment."

please make room for other opinions besides your own, god forbid we might have a decent discussion or learn something.

my favorite "news" headline of all time, which appears daily:

"scientists used to *believe* A, but know they *know* B is true."

irregardless that A was presented as fact, not belief, for 100 years previous, just as sure as B is now. and SURELY, B will never, ever, be disproven because no new evidence will EVER come to light, no one will EVER find a different way of looking at it, ever, CASE CLOSED.

lather, rinse, repeat.
you now have a mental model of the entire history of science. and it applies to anything.

you CAN NOT convince anyone of your beliefs, or disbeliefs for that matter. BECAUSE they have not had the same experiences you have, and vice-versa. and that statement is no exception.

so don't bother...

i'm sure the giant ball of light i saw one night, that dwarfed the moon over a blacked out green bay stadium, did a seamless 180 reverse *while accelerating* into the atmosphere, before blinking out of this dimension, was probably swamp gas. or a weather ballon, you pick.

same with the all-silver and all-black 727's spraying kool-aid out of the wing (not the engine) dangerously close to commercial traffic...

on to this:

www.victorzammit.com/skeptic...ton.html
(see, i also have handy links to the all knowing internet site that proves what i believe is right, and what you believe is bullshit.)

***
Argument # 2: "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."

This seems to be the mantra of hard nosed skeptics. One common way it is presented goes like this:

"If my friend told me that on the way here he was delayed because his car got a flat tire, then I would believe it because it is an ordinary claim. However, if he claimed that on his way here he was temporarily abducted by aliens in a UFO, then I would not believe his claim because it is extraordinary in nature. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."

Now it would help if the skeptics who proclaim this argument specify what they would accept as extraordinary evidence. Otherwise, arbitrarily stating this argument gives one an out no matter what evidence is shown. While it is reasonable to expect a higher standard of evidence for more extraordinary claims, there are nevertheless 6 difficulties to keep in mind.

1) First, although this rule is good as a general guideline, the fact that 3 possible alternatives exist make this rule fallible.

a) It is possible for something to exist without leaving behind collectable evidence as a souvenir to us. For example, planes, radio waves, electromagnetism, and light move around without leaving "hard evidence" yet they exist. Therefore, extraordinary phenomena can easily exist without leaving behind extraordinary evidence.

b) It is possible for something to exist yet the evidence for it hasn't been found or understood yet, which is the case for almost every discovery in history from fire and wheels to gunpowder and gravity, to planets, atoms and electromagnetism.

c) It is possible that the evidence is already there but that it's subject to interpretation, making it controversial. This is true for instance, of the alleged mysterious implants found by doctors and surgeons in alleged alien abductees. So even when something leaves a trail, residue or mark, they are subject to interpretation anyway.

Of course, skeptics have argued that all these things are possible but not probable, hence the requirement for extraordinary evidence. However, in order to really know all that is probable and improbable in the universe and reality, it would require that one have complete knowledge of every dimension and reality that exists in the universe and beyond. No one, neither skeptic nor believer, has that kind of knowledge, at least not consciously. Therefore, it would be more accurate to state that:

"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence to convince skeptics, but not necessarily to exist in objective reality."

***

millions were duped into death by WW1, WW2 (particularly pearl harbor), and if you don't find anything strange about 9/11 then stop reading NOW, i'm wasting my keystrokes. the argument that a government with near infinite resources couldn't spray a million gallons of kool-aid into the air daily and keep it a secret is ABSURD.

and while i'm at it, my mighty newage cut-and-paste warriors, before right clicking your next irrelevant post that someone else wrote about the "Galactic Walnut Alignment Tomorrow Everyone Must Drop Their Pants at NOON So We Can Pass Through The 7th Magickal Snacking Gate OR ELSE!", please take a moment and replace every instance of the word "walnut" or "dolphin" or whatever the fuck it is you know you're right about with the word "jesus" (or "allah", if you dare) - and then re-read carefully before hitting the 'submit' button.

you may be shocked at how it sounds. or not.

in which case you can screw off and start your own 1500 member "Surviving the Galactic Walnut" tribe.

see? people think your disbeliefs are bullshit too.
posted by:
atom
  • Re: debunking skepticism- not bloody likely

    Wed, April 23, 2008 - 9:58 AM
    "Argument # 2: "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." "
    I would like to disagree with this point, not because it's even necessarily wrong about some skeptics, but the interpretation of that quote doesn't quite make it to the heart of the matter.
    Any true skeptic (there are as many bad skeptics as there are bad new age woo practitioners) would be open to the evidence of any claim, if there were any. The problem with the flat tire analogy vs UFO abduction doesn't lie in the fact that I accept one anecdote as ordinary thus true and the other as extraordinary, thus false, but the fact that I have seen, experienced, changed and been plagued by many flat tires on a daily basis since the invention of corrupt local government that can't fix a street. Meanwhile I have NO evidence of UFOs, therefore the bar must be higher than anecdotal evidence. The heart of this isn't even that people lie, but the fact that people are mistaken and most often will allow cognitive dissonance to fill in for itself, the brain is really good at "making things up" when it can't comprehend what's happening in front of it's eyes. This doesn't disprove UFOs (no good skeptic tries to disprove anything, you can't prove a negative, sorry Winston), it just shows that the order of magnitude for the likelihood of a flat tire vs UFO abduction isn't in the same statistical ballpark.

    "you now have a mental model of the entire history of science. and it applies to anything. "
    I think, to be fair, you're painting with too broad of a brush here. The issue I have with most "believers" is that they're so ready to jump down the throat of evil establishments while ignoring the fact that science works for them on a daily basis. It's a little hard to swallow, while listening to Intelligent Designers, that they really grasp evolution and what it means and at the same time they don't think twice about medical treatments that they receive in the form of antibiotics or even basic antiseptics being based on the same principals. Science doesn't have the pleasure of picking what it likes and disregarding things that don't jive with it's world view. The same science which shows that gravity sticks us to the planet is the same science that won't allow homeopathy to work. Of course there are scientists who claim "B" will definitely not work because "A" has been proven. Everyone has their sacred cow, even Einstein couldn't reconcile quantum physics and Sir Isaac Newton was a firm believer in alchemy. But good science is open to revision. The theory of evolution we have today is a far cry from Darwin's evolution 150 years ago and there are things we are still finding that will revise it further and make it more nuanced; that hardly makes it wrong. Very rarely does science do a complete 180 degree turn, it just needs nudging and pushing. Certainly most scientists would be thrilled to have the carcass of Bigfoot and to catalog his place in our family tree (alas though, the gorilla suit photographers gave that one up as a death bed confessional. That still hasn't stopped an entire cottage industry of Bigfoot scientists though)

    I don't believe in UFOs personally, but I haven't seen one. Do I believe you saw one? Maybe. Sure. In fact, yes. I believe you, that's enough for me. I am definitely a skeptic, but I am open to discovery. How could I possibly believe in UFOs if I never saw one? Never saw a picture of one? (those bad airbrush jobs don't count) Never heard one? You may ask then how could I believe in China? After all I have never been there. The energy it would take to fabricate photos, videos, textbooks, millions of eyewitness accounts and maps to perpetuate a lie that big, not to mention the motivations to keep me in the dark, would be staggering. The ordinary claim is that China exists, the extraordinary claim is that China doesn't exist and that, as you would understand, takes extraordinary evidence. If I start believing things based on anecdotal evidence only then I am open to an entire panacea of crazy-ass beliefs, including Dolphin Galactic Walnut Star Phases... ;)

    So for my baseless beliefs, I really have to more agree with the spirit of your post than disagree. We lead a very subjective existence and the idea of skepticism and science in my mind does not preclude or disprove the idea of god or an over-arching life force... just what the hell god wants me to do is beyond me though... :)

    and: ha! Winston Wu. whatevs. He hasn't debunked anyone yet that I can tell...
    • Re: debunking skepticism- not bloody likely

      Fri, April 25, 2008 - 9:20 AM
      "(alas though, the gorilla suit photographers gave that one up as a death bed confessional. That still hasn't stopped an entire cottage industry of Bigfoot scientists though) "

      There have actually been several people coming forward claiming to have been bigfoot in that video, so who are we to believe? Also, Native Americans have been telling tales of the Sasquatch for centuries before that video ever came about.
      • Re: debunking skepticism- not bloody likely

        Fri, April 25, 2008 - 9:58 AM
        so we should also believe in Thunderbirds and the turtle creation story? The coyote as a trickster of humans?
        Just like any religion, it's all poetic allegory. That is, until you find the body of one or one comes over for dinner... which we haven't. I prefer not to live on the slippery slope.
        of course this doesn't mean Sasquatches don't exist, but this goes back to extraordinary claims requiring extraordinary evidence. I can claim ALL DAY LONG that anything I want to believe is real, we just haven't proven it "scientifically" but there is no reason anyone else shouldn't think I am anything except short a few marbles until I can give them repeatable evidence. If you have a few hundred thousand individuals giving a similar account of a creature it becomes more plausible that a few hundred thousand people aren't delusional or mistaken or flat out lying, rather than a few hundred people.

        and the people we are to believe are the ones who actually took the original photo and then later recanted their claim as a hoax.
        • Re: debunking skepticism- not bloody likely

          Fri, April 25, 2008 - 11:24 AM
          Scientists also considered the mountain gorilla to be a myth until the 20th century. It's a common pattern for arrogant westerners not to take the locals seriously. I'm not saying the Sasquatch is real, but I am saying that it's far from debunked.
          • Re: debunking skepticism- not bloody likely

            Fri, April 25, 2008 - 11:39 AM
            we can never debunk it. no one is trying to debunk its existence. you can't prove a negative. its more of a waiting game to see a positive. who knows, perhaps once we have eliminated more natural habitat and made the world smaller in relation to our teeming billions, the shy sasquatch will be forced to reveal itself to us. until then though, I open but remain skeptical. the impetus is not on skeptics to provide proof, its on believers. personally I would love our world to remain a little more mysterious and have a little more magic... but that's my wishful thinking.
            • Re: debunking skepticism- not bloody likely

              Sat, April 26, 2008 - 6:18 AM
              my issue is that the all-knowing house of science is built entirely on a foundation of begrudging self-correction...so to rely on any of it's agent's opinions that something *isn't* real is beyond foolish...

              i present to you the 80% of our brains that we "never use" and "junk DNA"...whoops.

              factor in where the money comes from to back these opinions (industry) and the government's various agendas...i'll just believe my own experience and trust my own facility for critical thinking, thank you very much.